Prior knowledge, proportions and probabilities of probabilities
Alejandro Diaz, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK
Which proportion is higher: 5 out of a 10 or 400 out of 1000? The answer seems obvious. But if these proportions were number of successes divided by number of trials, would you still think the same? Is a baseball player who achieved 5 hits out of 10 chances throughout his career, better than one who achieved 400 hits out of 1000 chances? In this introductory tutorial, we will see how Bayesian inference helps us add context in order to make decisions. The key will reside on representing prior knowledge using a probability distribution for probabilities: the very famous and elegant beta distribution.
Bayesian linear regression and hierarchical models
Alfredo Garbuno, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK
Bayesian data analysis allows researchers to conduct probabilistic inference about non-observable quantities in a statistical model. This introductory workshop is aimed at those interested in applying the Bayesian paradigm in their data analysis tasks.
The tutorial will start with Bayesian linear regression models, and will provide guidelines for probabilistic enhancement to the model's complexity. This improvement will lead to the hierarchical regression model in which the Bayesian paradigm allows for a more flexible model, whilst providing a natural mechanism to prevent over-fitting. The session will present a classical Bayesian regression problem which can be followed through Python notebooks.
Bayes Days is held in the Risk Institute Seminar Room in the Chadwick Building at the end of Peach Street in the heart of the University of Liverpool campus. Use the south entrance to the Chadwick Building; other entrances have no access to the Risk Institute. When you enter the building, you'll see the Muspratt Lecture Theatre. Turn left and enter the brown door, and follow signs to the Risk Institute Seminar Room.
University of Liverpool
Latitude: 53.404110 / 53°24'14.8"N,
Longitude: -2.964600 / 2°57'52.6"W
Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool
Peach Street, Chadwick Building
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