As part of the Open Lecture Series, Professor Jim Hall FREng (Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks in the School of Geography and the Environment and a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Engineering Science) will give a talk explaining the ITRC’s methodology for national infrastructure assessment and will explain how NISMOD is being used to assess options for infrastructure provision in Britain. His research focuses upon management of climate-related risks in infrastructure systems, in particular relating to various dimensions of water security, including flooding and water scarcity.Find out more
The Institute for Risk and Uncertainty of the University of Liverpool will host a two-day symposium on expert elicitation over 13-14 February 2019. We are hoping to develop some synoptic guidance for people who must address expert opinions in their quantitative risk assessments. There have recently been several prominent books on this topic from various quarters in the social, biological, and physical sciences, with rather divergent stories about best practices.
The event will consist of a number of proffered talks from distinguished meta-experts on the topic, and extensive expert panel discussions including the perspective from industrial and academic practitioners.
In this workshop, we will discuss the benefits and disadvantages of two alternative expressions for epistemic uncertainty: precise probability and bounds on probability, including verbal encapsulations that encode uncertainty. The quantification will be demonstrated using open-source code for the R programming environment. We will then compare expressions from these two approaches and discuss them in light of research and principles of risk analysis. The workshop will also present research from risk communication literature and an overview of experiments comparing the success in communicating epistemic uncertainty by bounds or precise probability. The question we would like to answer is, when and why to use bounds or not? The workshop will explain and focus on the difference between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It will address two problems drawn from existing opinions, one with medium and one with weak background knowledge.
This one day meeting will provide an opportunity for research active staff to meet potential collaborators from other departments. There will be presentations by group representatives from the School of Engineering and the Department of Mathematical Sciences, followed by structured discussion, and the chance to win funding to support a student summer internship to kick-start a collaborative research project.
Understanding and predicting weather-related incidents on the rail network: case studies of wind- and heat-related incidents in GB context
The impacts of extreme weather events on railway operations are complex and in the most severe cases can cause significant disruption to the rail services, leading to delays for passengers and financial penalties to the industry.
This talk by Dr Quian Fu (Research Fellow, Birmingham Centre for Railway Research and Education, University of Birmingham) will focus on a prototype data model, which enables exploration of the underlying causal factors impacting on weather-related incidents on the rail network in GB context.
Wearable, Non-invasive or Continuous medical technologies: the other half of the puzzle
Currently we’re seeing an explosion in the popularity of wearable consumer electronics, which are leading many to question: Why is medical technology not making more use of these? One reason is that whilst our capacity in electronics is improving, our understanding of our body’s interface is still limited. In this presentation I will discuss the complexity of soft tissues and how their composite structure leads to many challenges but also opportunities for new medical technologies. In particular, I will look at how the material behaviour of skin and mucosal tissue provides a great location for sensor development. I will also discuss the development of a novel vaccination technology and how an understanding of skin’s mechanics positioned this technology for translation from basic research to clinical prototypes.
Risk Tradeoffs: Crying over Raw Milk
Humans depend on a diverse, protective microflora of bacteria. Some argue that pasteurisation of milk robs consumers of essential heath benefits. Others worry that raw milk can carry disease bacteria leading to illness or even death. Scientific evidence documents both benefits and risks associated with drinking raw milk, but public health authorities often emphasise on risks. Is this smart?
Hesham Al-Ammal teaches Computer Science at the University of Bahrain. He graduated with a BSc from KFUPM, Saudi Arabia; an MSc in Computer Science from Louisiana State University, USA; and a PhD in Computer Science from the University of Warwick, UK. He held several administrative positions at the University of Bahrain, including Director of the Quality Assurance Center (2008-2011), and Dean of the College of Information Technology (2011-2017). His research interests include: algorithms, cyber security, and data analytics.
The presentation will review the latest load forecasting techniques, in the context of different scale and horizons. Today, the competitive energy market demands more accurate forecasting at different scales, ranging from a single smart-meter (end-user) up to a whole power grid system. As a result of this market need, load forecasting is considered today as an essential part of the electricity industry’s planning process.
Load forecasting is not only important for the management of electricity’s generation, transmission, and distribution; but also, is crucial for consumers in order to optimize the use of their home electricity management systems. Although some past reviews investigate load forecasting, but a very few consider all possible scales and horizons. An up to date survey of load forecasting techniques will also will be presented by considering new trends such as distributed load forecasting, cloud computing techniques, real-time, and stream processing algorithms.
The is joint work with Sameem Abdul Kareem and Elham M. Eskandarnia, University of Malaya, Malaysia.
Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. He is former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor, School of Law at the University of Virginia. He is also Batten Fellow at the Darden Business School, University of Virginia, and Fellow of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and the German Academy of Sciences. Awards for his work include the AAAS Prize for the best article in the behavioral sciences and the Association of American Publishers Prize for the best book in the social and behavioral sciences.
The Liverpool Institute for Risk and Uncertainty will host on campus the Annual Showcase Conference on Wednesday September 26th. This is supported by EPSRC & ESRC Centre for Doctoral Training (CDT). In this conference our Students will present their research progress to step up onto their PhD status. Further, there will be a poster competition open to all PhD students of the Risk Institute. This is an opportunity to see the current research pursued at the CDT and Institute for Risk and Uncertainty.
Imprecise Tuesdays: Robust Bayes Factor.
The Bayes Factor is a Bayesian tool for comparing two hypotheses, which is gaining popularity in psychological research and being suggested to replace classical t-tests. However, the Bayes Factor requires the specification of a prior distribution for the parameter of interest, which cannot be done unambiguously. In many situations, when further research is needed, information is not complete. This problem can be solved in the context of imprecise probabilities by using only the available (incomplete) knowledge. In this approach, a set of prior distributions is used instead of a single prior, yielding a set of Bayes Factor results, which is called the Robust Bayes Factor. In my talk, I will present the result of a project, in which the Bayes Factor was generalized to imprecise probabilities in a two-sample context with normally distributed data. The effect size between the two groups serves as parameter of interest and its prior was modeled as a set of normal distributions.
Imprecise Tuesdays: Minimisation of the effect of aleatory uncertainties on dynamic systems by active control using the method of receptances.
This paper presents a method to reduce the effect of uncertainties on dynamic systems by means of active control. In the proposed approach, pole placement is performed iteratively using an optimisation algorithm with an objective function that includes the variance of the real and imaginary part of each of the system’s pole. The method is advantageous in that control gains are calculated using the method of receptances, which eliminates model form uncertainty since only measured receptance data is used. Moreover, variances are extracted through a polynomial chaos expansion, which requires fewer samples as opposed to other techniques. The method is demonstrated numerically on a simple multi-degree-of-freedom system. It is shown that active control can be used in a way that not only places the poles of the system but also reduces their spread. Furthermore, it is shown that it is possible to directly relate uncertainty in the poles to meaningful physical based uncertainty in the structural parameters.
The 8th SIPTA Summer School took place in Oviedo (Spain) from 24 to 28 of July, 2018. It introduced both the main theoretical aspects of imprecise probability models and in particular belief functions, as well as their applications on machine learning, decision making and engineering. Leading specialists in these different aspects of imprecise probabilities gave lectures on the main concepts and techniques associated to their area of expertise, in a friendly environment favouring interaction between participants.
REC2018 was the eighth biennial meeting in the Reliable Engineering Computing series. Hosted by the Liverpool Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, the theme was "Computing with Confidence", bringing together engineers and scientists of all kinds from across industrial, academic and governmental institutions.
As part of the Open Lecture Series, Professor Richard Clegg (Foundation Chief Executive, Lloyd's Register) gives a talk which takes a sideways look at risk from the angle of public perceptions versus reality. It looks at the data behind the hazards and dangers we experience in everyday life, and the psychology of why we seem to accept and tolerate some risks but not others. The talk also compares risks by drawing analogies – for example how many bananas do you need to eat to get the same radiation dose from natural potassium-40 as you do from a dental X-ray?
As part of the Open Lecture Series, Alex Brazier (Director, Financial Stability Strategy and Risk (FSSR), Bank of England) gives a talk regarding economic risk.
As part of the Open Lecture Series, Dr Veronica Bowman (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory) gives a talk providing an illustrative scenario examining the theoretical release and spread of a disease within a city, demonstrating both the challenges faced in such a complex scenario and sharing current best practice when communicating with decision makers.
As part of the Open Lecture Series, Professor Roger Street (University of Oxford) gives a talk on 'The value of uncertainty in decision making: challenges and lessons learnt from addressing climate change'.
The Study Group is an opportunity for industry to gain access to UK excellence in the fields of mathematics, statistics, engineering, and computer science. The structure of the Group allows for this to be done in a structured, intense session over three days.